The potentially unlimited simple interactions, which eventually give us our weather make for a very complex number of data sets. This makes weather forecasting very difficult. As we follow the Butterfly Affect and theories of simplicity and complexity we see that relatively small changes or a 1-2 degree difference in ocean surface temperatures can completely change the quotient; the difference between a large category Hurricane or a tropical depression which simply fails to form and falls apart.

Often Tropical Storm or Hurricane systems, which move off our coast to cross the Atlantic provide energy for the next wave of off shore African Coastal flows. I have noticed that these systems seem to provide energy and then dip and come back around as part of another future system. And if all the attributes are right, in a week this storms energy could become part of the future weather systems as it re-circulates.

A recent think tank discussion has considered that our super computers should figure in an energy constant from the circulation of the prior week as some of that moves back down and around to come back off the coast of Africa towards the Caribbean again. Give it an energy quotient. Like on a scale of 1-10 this might be a "6" added to the weather flows coming off the coast of Africa in 4-6 days. Thus if we have more weak trade winds or shear then a "6" could counter balance that too.

It seems the stronger the system the more it compounds on the next circulation. It also seems that a little solar activity and New Moon or Full Moon also add to it. I would say add "2" for new or full moon for energy quotient and Solar flares from 1-4 depending on the severity, because that causes energy (Space Weather is an issue too) and sea surface temps. So if you had weak trade winds and then a 6 energy + 2 solar flare + 2 full moon + high surface temps, then you might get a Tropical Storm in the Caribbean even in Feb? Don't know, but what do you think about adding some more variables to the Super Computer calculations to see what happens? Sometimes human hunches along with number crunching and huge data sets seem to be a BMP way to predict?

Lots to consider in trying to determine the potential formation of Hurricanes already, adding more components might complicate things, but it might also help us better achieve fool proof forecasting. Consider all this in 2006.